Just 60 days prior that the young forward found himself on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered while the Villa manager berated him over not reading a through-ball. Back then, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear whether his displays were a symptom or a cause of the side's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, however, the manager's outburst was entirely much more joyous. As the England international drilled in his brace-sealing goal to restore his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician ripped off his coat, spread his arms and bellowed. Villa were on their way to a 10th successive win , after failing to win their opening six games, now sit only three points behind the leaders Arsenal.
Is This Team Legitimate Challengers?
That’s a rather hard question to answer. Past precedent, a general sense of this institution, argues against it. Moreover, their performances haven't been wholly dominant this season, while the positive results have accumulated.
As per the data, in only two games have Villa posted an xG significantly higher than their opponents. For a team who have just won a ten-match winning streak, they appear curiously susceptible – yet right now the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Winning Formula
The current approach looks like to exchange chances with an opponent before hoping their talisman to rescue them with a couple of crisp finishes. This was the case against Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and again when facing United.
Rogers' first goal originated from a superb shot, curled precisely inside the upright from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal acted as a somewhat messier replica of goal number one as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. In the recent win, the opposition managed more shots and more direct attempts. The team has won each of their last eight by a single goal. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those games.
Regression to the mean might be the most significant challenge the club have to face as the season progresses. Their key man, in all likelihood, cannot keep on blasting the ball past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists another reality where, instead of luck running out, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players may yet return to peak condition.
- Ollie Watkins might resume scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the player he showed in Germany.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually regain fitness, bolstering a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the possibility of a title challenge, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, this is a surprise. Nobody thought the team would sit third at Christmas. And certainly two months ago, nobody thought the young forward as the year closed would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while looking like a vital England player.
This winning streak is to be savoured exactly since it seems so surreal. As Rogers faced the North End after the match conducting the cheers, he appeared to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. Such periods are rare in football and should be relished.
